Tesla (TSLA) Analyst Price Targets vs. Fundamental Analysis
TSLA analyst price targets average within 4% of the stock, with 18% of covering analysts actively recommending a Sell
By Mathew Auto
Data as of July 6, 2026.
TSLA analyst price targets average $407.32 across 27 covering analysts, implying roughly 3.5% upside from the current price of $393.45. That near-flat consensus sounds calm. It isn’t. The rating breakdown is 63.46% Buy, 18.27% Hold, and 18.27% Sell, with the Sell percentage running higher than any other stock in this comparison group. Behind that split is a business scoring 1 of 4 on a financial scorecard. It runs a trailing operating margin of roughly 4% at nearly 390 times earnings. Analysts aren’t disagreeing about the numbers. They’re disagreeing about whether the numbers matter for a company priced almost entirely on what it might become.
What Analysts Say About TSLA
Still, the $407.32 average PT implies barely 3.5% upside, making TSLA unusual among large-cap stocks: a name where the analyst consensus is nearly indistinguishable from the market’s current judgment. But the average obscures a spread that’s wider than almost anything else in this group. Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research carries the lowest active target at $24.86, a Sell he’s maintained since March 2024. He’s reached zero of his six documented targets on it. The most bullish desk currently holds a target reaching $600, more than 50% above the current price. That $575 spread between the most bearish and most bullish active targets is a genuine disagreement. It isn’t just noise in the coverage.
Recent Coverage Moves
Specifically, the most recent PT action came from William Stein of Truist, who trimmed his target from $438 to $430 on July 2, keeping his Hold rating. Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen sits in the bull camp with a Buy at $490. Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan holds a Sell at $475. The target is nominally high but the rating is bearish. His view: even that price doesn’t justify the fundamentals. The coverage breaks down in an unusual way. Nineteen of 27 analysts rate it Buy. Still, just under a third of covering analysts would not be buyers at today’s price.
No Clear Directional Trend
So far, PT movements have not shown a directional trend. There’s been no wave of consecutive upgrades or cuts in either direction, leaving the coverage roughly where it’s been. So the split you see now (63% Buy, 18% each Hold and Sell) is a durable feature of Tesla’s coverage, not a temporary divergence.
What the Fundamentals Show
On the fundamentals side, investlyk’s fundamental scorecard for TSLA (investlyk.com →) rates the business 1 of 4 strong as of the January 2026 10-K. Three signals are negative: growth quality is declining, profit quality is weak, and owner value quality flags growth with low returns. The one positive is debt safety. Tesla holds roughly $45 billion in net cash against modest debt, a strong balance sheet that gives it the runway to fund longer-term bets even while current-period profitability is under pressure.
The Numbers Behind the Score
The underlying numbers tell a specific story. Revenue grew 15.8% year over year on the most recent quarterly basis. That’s real growth. The annual trend in the 10-K shows declining growth quality, though, driven by years of vehicle price cuts in response to intensifying EV competition and softer demand. The trailing operating margin is near 4%, down from peak levels. Return on invested capital is 4.9%. Free cash flow margin is 5.4%. Granted, these are workable numbers for a company trading at a normal multiple. At nearly 390 times earnings, they’re largely being set aside in favor of a thesis about what Tesla earns in a future that hasn’t arrived.
Valuation and Timing
On valuation, investlyk scores 0 of 4 sensible. The P/E near 390 is rated Risky. The stock sits 14.7% below its 52-week high. Timing signals are 2 of 3 supportive, momentum is improving and RSI is balanced, but the price trend is unresolved, with no clear directional confirmation from highs and lows.
That said, the bull case requires reading the filing through a different lens. Tesla’s 10-K centers on optionality: autonomy, robotaxi services, a scaling energy storage segment, and AI infrastructure. The $45 billion cash position gives it real capacity to pursue all of these without dilution. If full self-driving becomes commercially viable and the energy storage business reaches scale, the income statement three years from now could look entirely different from today’s. The bear case is more direct. The core auto business has been compressing, not recovering, and vehicle margins haven’t turned.
Where the Gap Is, and What Would Close It
So the average PT of $407 sitting within 4% of the current price isn’t analyst conviction. It’s a wait-and-see. In fact, most analysts aren’t projecting a bold new outcome on either side. They’re holding their positions while the business story develops.
What Would Move the Consensus
Specifically, for TSLA analyst price targets to shift materially higher from here, the coverage would need to see one of three concrete developments: a robotaxi launch generating visible commercial revenue, a vehicle margin recovery back toward 8-10% from today’s roughly 4%, or a re-rating of the energy storage segment as a standalone high-growth asset. None of those show up in today’s income statement. The bulls with $490-$600 targets are pricing in at least one arriving within their window. Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research and the lower-end bears are pricing in a world where none of them do, and where auto margins continue to compress. Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan occupies a specific middle position (a high nominal target, Sell rating) that captures the view that the business might eventually reach those levels but that today’s price already prices in the outcome.
Which Analyst Has the Best Track Record on TSLA?
Now, before weighting any Tesla analyst’s target, it helps to look at who’s actually delivered on the stock. AnaChart tracks price target met ratios, how often each analyst’s call was reached within the expected window on TSLA specifically.
Specifically, William Stein of Truist leads the visible coverage by met ratio: 26 of his 29 TSLA-specific targets have been reached, an 89.66% rate across an average of 118 days. His current call is a Hold at $430. That places him in the cautious middle, despite that strong history.
In addition, among AnaChart’s top five analysts by performance score on TSLA, Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho carries a career met ratio of 86.8%, with an average TSLA upside of $77.41 (35.46%) across his documented targets. Alexander Potter of Piper Sandler shows the widest average TSLA upside of the five at $122.59 (46.07%), with a career met ratio of 66.55%. Stephen Gengaro of Stifel runs a career met ratio of 64.77% and an average TSLA upside of $80.02 (30.01%).
Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen has the deepest per-stock sample in the visible coverage: 36 of his 55 documented TSLA targets have been met, a 65.45% rate across an average of 86 days. His current Buy at $490 makes him one of the more aggressive bulls in active coverage. Dan Levy of Barclays rounds out the five with a career met ratio of 60.26% and an average TSLA upside of $42.63 (19.7%).
What is the current analyst price target for TSLA?
In total, TSLA analyst price targets average $407.32 across 27 analysts as of July 2026, implying roughly 3.5% upside from the current price of $393.45. The range runs from $24.86 (Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, Sell) at the low end to $600 at the high. The most recent update was William Stein of Truist lowering his target to $430 on July 2.
Is TSLA a Buy or Sell according to analysts?
Overall, of 27 analysts covering TSLA, 63.46% rate it Buy, 18.27% Hold, and 18.27% Sell. The 18% Sell rating is the highest among any stock tracked in this group, reflecting genuinely divided views on whether the stock’s valuation is warranted. Recent PT movements have not shown a clear directional shift, keeping the split roughly stable.
How often are TSLA analyst price targets actually reached?
Historically, the average price target met ratio across TSLA analysts tracked by AnaChart is 75.11%, with targets typically reached within 198.69 days. William Stein of Truist has reached 26 of his 29 TSLA-specific targets (89.66%). Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen has reached 36 of 55 (65.45%) over an average of 86 days, the largest per-stock sample in the visible coverage.
How does Tesla’s fundamental scorecard compare to analyst targets?
In short, investlyk rates Tesla 1 of 4 strong on fundamentals: growth quality declining, profit quality weak, operating margin near 4% at roughly 390 times earnings. The one supporting signal is debt safety, backed by roughly $45 billion in net cash. Most analyst targets above the current price are priced for a forward thesis on autonomy and AI, not the current income statement, which is where the gap between the scorecard and the consensus lives.
For a full view of analyst track records on TSLA, visit AnaChart’s TSLA coverage page or explore the analyst price target dataset.