How Accurate Are Analyst Price Targets? A Data-Driven Look

By Mathew Auto, AnaChart research desk. Updated 24 October 2026. Data through 5 October 2026.

Analyst price targets show up on every stock page and in every upgrade headline. So how often are they right?

We checked 575,976 price targets from the 3,332 analysts still publishing on AnaChart, then tested the Street’s average target against the share price a year later on 8,537 more cases. The short answer: most targets get reached eventually, very few land on the right price at the right time, and the gap between one analyst and the next is far bigger than the averages suggest.

What “accurate” means for a price target

A price target is the share price an analyst expects in about twelve months. There are three fair ways to test one, and they give very different answers.

• Was it reached at all? Did the stock touch the target at any point after the analyst published it?
• Was it reached within a year? The window most targets are written for.
• How close was it on the day? The distance between the target and the share price exactly twelve months later.

The first test is generous and the last one is harsh. Most of the confusion about analyst accuracy comes from mixing them up.

Seven in ten targets were reached

Across the 575,976 targets from analysts still publishing, the share price reached 408,490 of them. That’s 70.9%.

It took time. The reached ones needed 335 days on average, about eleven months. Two in three came from analyst and stock records that average a year or less, and the rest took longer. We break the timing down in how long price targets take to be reached.

The 167,486 targets not reached so far include recent ones that still have time to run, so the 70.9% is a floor, not a final count.

Key takeaway: by the generous test, analysts do well. Most targets are reached in the end, just not quickly.

What the research shows

Academic studies land in the same place once you match the test. Bradshaw, Brown and Huang (Review of Accounting Studies, 2013) found that 64% of targets were met at some point within twelve months, but only 38% were still met at the end of the twelve months. An earlier study by Asquith, Mikhail and Au (Journal of Financial Economics, 2005) put it at slightly over half.

The harshest test is the one people usually mean: is the price where the analysts said it would be, a year on? In our test of 8,537 stock and date pairs from 2019 to 2024, the consensus target was within 10% of the price a year later only 22.4% of the time. The median miss was 23.8%.

Key takeaway: “reached at some point” and “right on the day” are different questions. The answer moves from about seven in ten to about two in ten.

Why targets usually sit above the price

Most targets point up. Of 413,811 targets on the 1,500 most covered stocks from 2015 to September 2025, 87.0% were above the share price on the day they were set. The median one sat 15.0% above it.

That tilt shows up a year later. In our consensus test, the average target was above the actual price a year on in 56.3% of cases, and below it in the rest. Brav and Lehavy (Journal of Finance, 2003) found the one-year target sat about 28% above the price in their sample.

The further a target sits above the price, the longer it takes. Reached targets set under 10% above the price took 281 days on average. Those set 60% or more above took 450.

Key takeaway: read a target as a direction and a distance, not a date. Big upside usually means a long wait.

The difference between analysts is larger than you think

The averages hide the most useful fact: on the same stock, some analysts’ targets are reached almost every time and others almost never.

On Apple, Laura Martin of Needham has had all 66 of her past targets reached, and Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan 119 of 120. Tim Long of Barclays, who rates Apple a Sell, has had 53 of 82.

On Tesla the range runs from Ben Kallo of Baird, with 166 of 175 reached, to Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, with none of his 9.

The consensus can be startlingly close or wildly off. At the end of 2022, the average target on Alphabet was $138.89. On 3 January 2024 the stock closed at $138.92.

Peloton went the other way. On 30 September 2021, 33 analysts had an average target of $137.40 with the stock at $82.60, and the lowest target was $45. A year later the stock was at $8.83.

Following the analyst with the best past record didn’t beat the consensus on the price a year out. It won 45.8% of the time across 8,537 cases, as we found in consensus price target or the best analyst. A record is most useful for judging a single call, like Andrew Didora‘s on United Airlines, who beat the consensus 14 times out of 18.

Key takeaway: the question isn’t whether analysts are accurate. It’s which analyst, on which stock.

How to use analyst price targets

• Use the consensus as a baseline, not a forecast of the exact price.
• Check the record behind each target. On AnaChart’s stock pages every analyst shows how many past targets on that stock were reached and how long they took.
• Discount big upside for time. A target 60% above the price has historically taken well over a year when it was reached at all.
• Look at the spread, not just the average. When the lowest target is a third of the average, as on Peloton in 2021, the analysts disagree more than the average lets on.
• Watch what happens after earnings. Most revisions follow the share price, as we found in our study of 3,417 post-earnings moves. What follows a raise or a cut is in our study of 267,985 revisions.

How we measured this

Reached. Every analyst with a live AnaChart page and at least one target since 1 October 2024: 3,332 analysts and 575,976 price targets. A target counts as reached on the first day the share price touches it after publication, using split-adjusted prices.

Above the price. Targets on the 1,500 stocks with the most targets, 1 January 2015 to 30 September 2025, compared with the closing price on the day each was set, both as issued.

Consensus a year later. The 600 most covered stocks at each quarter end from March 2019 to September 2024, with at least five analysts. The consensus is the average of each analyst’s latest target from the past year, compared with the split-adjusted close a year later, without dividends.

Analyst records. Reached counts for named analysts come from AnaChart’s stock pages on 23 October 2026.

Data through 5 October 2026. Rebuilt 24 October 2026 from the version first published 14 March 2026.

Frequently asked questions

On average, how accurate are Wall Street analyst price targets?

It depends on the test. Of 575,976 targets from analysts still publishing, 70.9% were reached at some point, in 335 days on average. But the consensus target was within 10% of the share price exactly a year later only 22.4% of the time, with a median miss of 23.8%.

Why are analyst price targets often inaccurate?

Most targets point up. 87.0% of targets on the most covered stocks were above the price when set, with a median of 15.0% above. The consensus ended up above the actual price a year later in 56.3% of cases. Targets with more upside also take longer to be reached.

How can I find the most accurate analysts for a specific stock?

Open the stock on AnaChart. Each analyst is listed with how many of their past targets on that stock were reached, the average days to reach them and a performance score. On Apple, for example, Laura Martin of Needham has had all 66 of her past targets reached.

Is the consensus price target more accurate than a single analyst?

On the price a year out, usually yes. In 8,537 cases from 2019 to 2024, the consensus missed by 23.8% at the median and the analyst with the best past record by 25.1%.