Analyst Price Target News: Centene – July 2nd, 2025

This week in analyst price targets: Centene withdrew its 2025 EPS guidance amid a marketplace risk adjustment impact, triggering analyst price target cuts as visibility into forward earnings declined.

By: Matthew Otto

Centene Withdraws 2025 EPS Guidance Amid Marketplace Risk Adjustment Impact

Centene Corporation announced on July 1, 2025, that it is withdrawing its previously issued 2025 earnings per share (EPS) guidance, citing updated Health Insurance Marketplace data. Based on preliminary findings from Wakely Consulting Group, which reviewed paid claims data through April 30, 2025, in 22 of Centene’s 29 Marketplace states (covering approximately 72% of its Marketplace members), the company now expects a reduction of roughly $1.8 billion in its net risk adjustment revenue transfer.

This revision translates into a $2.75 decrease in expected adjusted diluted EPS. The data showed higher market morbidity and lower-than-expected enrollment growth in these states, which Centene said were inconsistent with earlier internal projections. Centene also noted it lacks data from the remaining 7 Marketplace states but expects additional downside to its risk adjustment revenue, given similar morbidity trends.

Separately, Centene reported that the final 2024 risk adjustment results published by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) on June 30, 2025, were in line with internal expectations. These results incorporated offsetting increases in Minimum Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) payments, Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) accruals, and other factors.

In its Medicaid segment, Centene flagged higher-than-expected medical cost trends in areas such as behavioral health, home health, and high-cost drugs, particularly in New York and Florida, where service carve-ins occurred without sufficient rate adjustments. As a result, Centene now anticipates a higher Medicaid Health Benefits Ratio (HBR) for Q2 2025 compared to Q1. On a more stable front, Centene stated that its Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Plan (PDP) businesses are outperforming internal projections for the second quarter, and that it continues to achieve administrative expense efficiencies.

Analysts Downgrades Following Risk Adjustment Revenue Revision

UBS analyst A.J. Rice downgraded from Buy to Neutral and the price target from $80 to $45.
J.P. Morgan analyst John Stansel downgraded from Overweight to Neutral and the price target from $75 to $48.
Jefferies analyst David Windley maintained a Hold rating but lowered the price target from $61 to $47.
Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright reiterated an Overweight rating and the price target at $70.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Sarah James revised the price target downward from $95 to $65.

Which Analyst has the best track record to show on CNC?

Analyst David Windley (JEFFERIES) currently has the highest performing score on CNC with 12/26 (46.15%) price target fulfillment ratio. His price targets carry an average of $1.74 (2.94%) potential upside. Centene Corporation stock price reaches these price targets on average within 149 days.

MSC Reports Lower Earnings and Margins in Fiscal Q3 2025, Maintains Full-Year Guidance

MSC Industrial Supply posted third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue of $971.1 million. This is narrowly exceeding the consensus estimate of $970.26 million, though reflecting a 0.8% year-over-year decline. MSC also reported earnings per share of $1.08, beating the analyst estimate of $1.03 by $0.05.

Operating income for the quarter fell 22.5% to $82.7 million from $106.8 million a year earlier, with an operating margin of 8.5%. Net income attributable to MSC dropped 20.7% to $56.8 million, while adjusted net income came in at $60.2 million. Compared to the prior-year quarter, diluted EPS declined from $1.27 to $1.02, while adjusted EPS fell from $1.33 to $1.08.

For the year to date, sales totaled $2.79 billion, down 2.7% from $2.87 billion in the same period last year. Income from operations fell 27.5% to $217.3 million, and adjusted operating income decreased 28% to $225.5 million.

MSC reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2025 outlook despite the decline in earnings and revenue. It includes depreciation and amortization expenses of $90 to $95 million, interest and other expenses of approximately $45 million, and capital expenditures of $100 to $110 million. The company also reiterated its free cash flow conversion target of about 120% and expects a tax rate between 24.5% and 25.0%.

Analysts Lift Price Targets Following Q3 Results

Baird analyst David Manthey maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $84 to $95.
Stephens & Co. analyst Tommy Moll kept an Equal-Weight rating while increasing the price target from $85 to $90.
Loop Capital analyst Chris Dankert lifted the price target to $84.

Which Analyst has the best track record to show on MSM?

Analyst Chris Dankert (LOOP CAPITAL) currently has the highest performing score on MSM with 7/8 (87.5%) price target fulfillment ratio. His price targets carry an average of $2.78 (3.90%) potential upside. MSC Industrial Supply stock price reaches these price targets on average within 183 days.

Informa TechTarget Reports Preliminary Q1 Results and Maintains Full-Year Guidance

Informa TechTarget reported preliminary first-quarter 2025 revenue of $104 million, a 77% increase over the prior year’s reported figure of $59 million. However, on a Combined Company basis, revenues declined approximately 6% from $110 million in Q1 2024.

Net loss for the quarter is expected to range between $513 million and $545 million, widening from a $32 million loss in the same quarter last year. This includes a non-cash goodwill impairment of $450 million to $475 million tied to market capitalization falling below year-end book value, and $25 million to $32 million in income tax expense. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $3 million, down from $13 million on a Combined basis, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3% compared to 12% last year.

Informa TechTarget reaffirmed its full-year guidance, aiming for broadly flat revenue and adjusted EBITDA of over $85 million. It expects a mid-single-digit revenue decline for H1, with Q2 tracking a 5% decline year-to-date. The company now expects at least $10 million in operating synergies for 2025, more than doubling initial Year 1 targets, and remains on track to reach $45 million in total synergy run rate by Year 3.

Analyst Reaffirms Rating and Price Target Amid Q1 Results

Needham analyst Joshua Reilly reiterated with a Buy and a $15 price target.

Which Analyst has the best track record to show on TTGT?

Analyst Eric Martinuzzi (LAKE STREET) currently has the highest performing score on TTGT with 13/20 (65%) price target fulfillment ratio. His price targets carry an average of $3.33 (49.93%) potential upside. Informa TechTarget stock price reaches these price targets on average within 200 days.