Aon Price Target Cut After USI Deal, September 1 2026
Three analyst moves landed on Tuesday, one on each of the names below. Aon ($AON) drew a target cut. Tidewater ($TDW) drew a rating change. SailPoint ($SAIL) drew a target raise.
Aon Strikes A $17 Billion Deal For USI And Draws A Target Cut
Aon is a professional services firm. It reports in two segments, with four solution lines inside them. Risk Capital holds Commercial Risk Solutions and Reinsurance Solutions, which broker insurance and reinsurance. Human Capital holds Health Solutions and Wealth Solutions, which sell to employers.
The USI Acquisition
Aon confirmed on 31 August that it is buying USI Insurance Services. The price is $17 billion, or a net $16.7 billion after tax attributes. The sellers are KKR and the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec. They had bought USI from Onex in 2017, for $4.3 billion. Aon is funding the purchase entirely with new debt.
USI is the tenth largest insurance broker in the United States. It carries about $3 billion of annual revenue and more than 10,500 employees, across close to 200 offices. That revenue comes from property and casualty cover, employee benefits, personal risk products and retirement plan advice. Mid-sized businesses are its customers.
Aon puts that net price at about 14.5 times trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA. The EBITDA in that multiple also counts the savings Aon expects from the deal. Aon puts those run-rate savings at $395 million a year. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter, subject to regulatory approval, and to add to adjusted earnings a share from 2028. Aon also said it does not expect to repurchase shares in the near term, because it is prioritizing debt repayment.
What Aon’s Second Quarter Showed
Revenue in the quarter reported on 29 July was $4.25 billion. Adjusted earnings were $3.81 a share, against consensus of $3.80. Organic revenue grew 5 percent, and it grew in all four solution lines. The adjusted operating margin was 28.9 percent. In that quarter the company also raised its buyback to $1.1 billion, and it has now raised its dividend for 14 straight years.
Separately, Edmund Reese stepped down as chief financial officer on 18 August, with immediate effect. Nadin Virani took the role on an interim basis, while Aon searches for a permanent successor. Reese stays on as a senior adviser to the chief executive through August 2027.
Aon’s Stock Price Target News Today
Ryan Tunis of Cantor Fitzgerald kept Overweight on Tuesday, and cut his price target from $445 to $433. He puts the purchase at 22 times EBITDA before those savings, against the 12 times KKR paid in 2017. A debt-funded deal at that price is dilutive in year one, he wrote.
The modest upside from a deal of this size is a disappointment, he added, because investors have held Aon as a steady organic growth story with a strong repurchase. He also applied an uncertainty discount to Aon’s capital management. He cited two large deals in three years, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.65. He does see that upside in his own 2028 estimates, and he puts execution risk on the deal as low.
What Tunis’s Record Looks Like
Tunis has met 53.14 percent of his price targets. He takes an average of 261 days to get there.
The average target across the 13 analysts AnaChart tracks on Aon stands at $408.22. The board runs from $355 to $445. That high is still Tunis’s own figure from before the cut.
Tidewater Books $342.3 Million In Quarterly Revenue And Draws A Buy Upgrade
Tidewater owns and operates offshore support vessels. Energy companies charter them to service rigs and production platforms out at sea. The fleet ran to 206 vessels at the end of June. Of those, 200 were active and six were stacked. The classes include platform supply vessels, anchor handling tug supply vessels and specialty offshore support vessels.
What Tidewater’s Second Quarter Showed
Revenue in the quarter reported on 10 August was $342.3 million. That was 4.9 percent above the first quarter. Revenue for the six months came to $668.5 million. Net income was $21.7 million, or $0.43 a diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA was $133.8 million. A share repurchase authorization of $500 million also remains outstanding.
Tidewater’s average day rate was $22,938 in the quarter, up $655 from the first. The weighted average leading edge rate was $24,341, which is 7.5 percent more than the first quarter’s. Utilization ran at 79.2 percent across the whole fleet, and at 81.4 percent across the active one.
The company guides to revenue of $1.42 billion to $1.47 billion for 2026. Gross margin guidance, in addition, runs at 49 to 50 percent.
The Brazil Acquisition
Tidewater closed its purchase of Wilson Sons Ultratug Offshore on 31 August. The price was $500 million on a debt-free, cash-free basis. The deal brings in 22 platform supply vessels. It also takes the Brazilian fleet to 28 vessels from six.
Tidewater’s Stock Price Target News Today
Gregory Lewis of BTIG upgraded Tidewater to Buy from Neutral on Tuesday, and set a $120 price target. He had moved his rating the other way in July 2025, to Neutral from Buy.
Lewis expects the offshore supply vessel market to tighten over the next two years. More rig activity, incremental FPSO startups and limited fleet growth are the reasons he gives. He sees day rates going from about $23,000 now to about $30,000 in two years. That would add roughly $300 million of EBITDA on his numbers. It would also support annual EBITDA growth of 20 to 25 percent. He puts free cash flow at about $250 million this year.
What Lewis’s Record Looks Like
Lewis has met 60.81 percent of his price targets. He takes an average of 340 days to get there.
AnaChart’s board for Tidewater still carries one live target. That is $94, from James West of Evercore, set on 4 March.
SailPoint Books $280.1 Million In Quarterly Revenue And Draws A Target Raise
SailPoint sells identity security software. Its main product is Identity Security Cloud, which SailPoint runs for customers on a platform it calls Atlas. IdentityIQ, the older product, is instead the one customers run themselves. Thoma Bravo took SailPoint private in 2022, and the company returned to the public market in February 2025.
What SailPoint’s First Quarter Showed
Revenue in the quarter reported on 9 June was $280.1 million. That was 21.6 percent above the same quarter a year earlier. Adjusted earnings were $0.05 a share, against $0.04 expected. Annual recurring revenue reached $1.163 billion, or 26 percent more than a year earlier. Gross margin was 76.6 percent, and free cash flow was $32.5 million.
Revenue reports in four lines. SaaS brought in $178.4 million, or 63.7 percent of revenue, and it grew 35 percent. Term subscriptions added $43.9 million. Maintenance and support added $34.5 million as well, and services account for the rest.
The company guides to revenue of $308 million to $312 million for the quarter it reports on 9 September. That would be growth of 17 to 18 percent. Full year guidance, in addition, runs to $1.265 billion to $1.275 billion.
SailPoint’s Stock Price Target News Today
Jonathan Ruykhaver of Cantor Fitzgerald kept Overweight on Tuesday, and raised his price target from $23 to $25.
What Ruykhaver’s Record Looks Like
Ruykhaver has met 74.4 percent of his price targets. He takes an average of 222 days to get there.
The average target across the 17 analysts AnaChart tracks on SailPoint stands at $21.25. The board runs from $16 to $30. Ruykhaver’s own entry there is still the $23 he set in March.
Questions Readers Ask About These Numbers
How many analyst actions landed on these three names on Tuesday? Three in all, one on each. Cantor Fitzgerald cut its Aon target to $433. BTIG upgraded Tidewater to Buy and set $120. Cantor Fitzgerald also raised its SailPoint target to $25.
Why did Cantor Fitzgerald cut its Aon target? Ryan Tunis reads the $17 billion USI purchase as dilutive in year one, because it is funded entirely with new debt at 22 times EBITDA before synergies, against the 12 times KKR paid in 2017. Aon’s own 14.5 times figure counts the $395 million of expected savings. He kept Overweight, and he applied an uncertainty discount to Aon’s capital management, citing two large deals in three years and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.65.
What is Aon buying, and for how much? USI Insurance Services, from KKR and the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, for $17 billion, or $16.7 billion after tax attributes. USI is the tenth largest insurance broker in the United States, with about $3 billion of annual revenue and more than 10,500 employees. Aon expects to close in the fourth quarter and puts run-rate synergies at $395 million a year.
Why did BTIG upgrade Tidewater? Gregory Lewis expects the offshore supply vessel market to tighten over the next two years. He gives more rig activity, incremental FPSO startups and limited fleet growth as the reasons. He also sees day rates going from about $23,000 to about $30,000, which would add roughly $300 million of EBITDA on his numbers.
The previous session’s actions are in the 31 August update. The analyst price target dataset holds the underlying record for every name above.
