Newer vs veteran analysts: faster targets, lower hit rates, in a 44-analyst sample

Newer vs veteran analysts is a comparison with an easy headline and a hard method.

In a sample of 44 analysts who cover Nasdaq-100 stocks, the 22 newer names reached their price targets in a median 130 days and the 22 veterans in 258. The veterans reached a higher share of their targets, 78.0% against 65.1%.

That’s a pilot, not a verdict on experience. The day counts only include targets that were reached, and a newer analyst’s record is too short to contain a target that took five years.

Part of the gap is built into the measurement, and this page sets out how much we can and can’t say.

The sample

We started from AnaChart’s records of price targets on Nasdaq-100 stocks and ranked analysts by the date of their first Nasdaq-100 target. “Newer” meant a first Nasdaq-100 target less than four years before July 2026, and “veteran” twelve years or more.

Each analyst needed at least 15 Nasdaq-100 targets, and we took the 22 with the most targets in each group.

For those 44 analysts we then read two numbers from their AnaChart pages on 8 July 2026: the share of all their price targets, on every stock, that the stock went on to reach, and the average days those reached targets took.

So the groups come from Nasdaq-100 coverage, and the results come from each analyst’s full record. That mix matters, and the regrouping below tests it.

Speed and hit rate in the two groups

The median newer analyst reached a target in 130 days and the median veteran in 258.

Seventeen of the 22 newer analysts average under 180 days, against two of the 22 veterans. That’s a count of analysts by their average, not a count of individual targets.

On hit rate the order flips. The median veteran reached 78.0% of their targets and the median newer analyst 65.1%.

Key takeaway: newer analysts were faster, veterans reached more targets. The score weighs both.

The same 44 analysts, grouped by first target on any stock

A first Nasdaq-100 target isn’t the same as a first target. Seven of the 22 “newer” analysts had published targets on other stocks for more than four years before they reached the Nasdaq-100 list, and two of them, Brian Chin and Jessica Fye, for more than twelve.

Grouping the same 44 people by their first recorded target on any stock gives three groups.

Under that grouping, the seven analysts with under four years of records reached targets in a median 110 days and 63.5% of the time.

The thirteen with four to twelve years took a median 142 days and reached 63.9%. The 24 with twelve years or more took 257.5 days and reached 78.0%. The order is the same as before.

What this does and doesn’t show

It shows that, in this sample, analysts with shorter records reached their targets sooner on average and reached fewer of them. It doesn’t show that newer analysts are faster because they are newer.

The first reason is the clock. Days to reach a target only counts targets that were reached, and each analyst’s record runs for a different number of years. An analyst with three years of records can’t have a target that took four years to be reached.

A veteran’s record can, so long waits are only possible on one side. A fair speed test would compare targets set in the same calendar window and followed for the same length of time, which needs target-level data we haven’t run for this sample.

The second is target distance, and it points the other way from what an earlier version of this page said. Within the 44, the newer group’s median implied upside was 17.7% and the veterans’ 15.6%.

By first target on any stock, the medians were 18.8%, 19.9% and 14.6%. So the shorter waits didn’t come from closer targets.

Third, 44 analysts chosen by target count is a small and selected sample. It isn’t the population, and the results could change with a different selection.

All 44 analysts

Met ratio and average days to reach a target read from each analyst’s AnaChart page on 8 July 2026, all stocks. Median implied upside: target divided by the closing price on the day it was set, minus one, across that analyst’s targets in our records to 8 July 2026. Group: by first Nasdaq-100 target.

Two high hit rates, different waiting times

Alex Straton, in the newer group, reached 81.0% of his targets in an average of 96 days. Amit Daryanani, a veteran, reached 90.2% in an average of 367 days. Both records have high hit rates, and Straton’s average wait is about a quarter of Daryanani’s.

Brent Thill, a veteran in the sample, shows the pattern on one stock: his Salesforce targets sat above the share price for long stretches before it reached them.

How the performance score treats speed

A hit rate counts a target reached in three months the same as one reached in three years. AnaChart’s performance score doesn’t. For each reached target it is 1000 × (target − price when the target was set) ÷ (price when set × days to reach).

For a target below the price, the numerator is the price minus the target. A target never reached scores zero, and an analyst’s score on a stock is the simple average across their targets.

So the score rewards the distance between the target and the price on the day it was set, and the speed at which the stock got there.

It doesn’t reward a stock overshooting the target, and reaching a target isn’t the same as an investment return.

How we measured this

Selection. Analysts ranked by the date of their first Nasdaq-100 price target in AnaChart’s records. Newer: under four years before July 2026. Veteran: twelve years or more. At least 15 Nasdaq-100 targets. The 22 analysts with the most Nasdaq-100 targets in each group.

Met ratio and days. Read from each analyst’s AnaChart page on 8 July 2026, across every stock they cover.

A target counts as reached on the first day the share price touches it after publication, using split-adjusted prices. For a target set below the price, that means the price falling to it. Average days counts reached targets only.

Implied upside and first recorded target. From AnaChart’s price target records up to 8 July 2026, with spelling variants of one name merged.

Limits. Unequal record lengths, reached-only averages, a selected sample of 44, and groups based on Nasdaq-100 coverage while the results cover all stocks. This page takes no view on any stock or analyst.

Frequently asked questions

Do newer analysts reach price targets faster than veterans?

In this 44-analyst sample, the newer group’s median was 130 days against 258 for veterans, counting reached targets only. Because newer analysts have shorter records, part of that gap is built into the measurement. Joseph Civello averages 61 days and John Vinh 456.

Are veteran analysts more accurate?

In this sample the median veteran reached 78.0% of their targets and the median newer analyst 65.1%. Mitch Steves reached 99.5% and Ross Seymore 90.3%, both veterans.

Do newer analysts set closer price targets?

Not in this sample. The newer group’s median implied upside was 17.7% and the veterans’ 15.6%. Andres Sheppard’s median was 39.2%, one of the highest in the group.

How does AnaChart define a newer or veteran analyst here?

By the date of the analyst’s first Nasdaq-100 price target in our records: under four years is newer, twelve or more is veteran. Grouped by first target on any stock instead, Brian Chin and Jessica Fye move to the twelve-year group.

Sample figures read 8 July 2026. First published 8 July 2026, revised 5 October 2026 after an outside review: tenure regrouping, within-sample target distance, full analyst list and the score formula added.