Wall Street Strategist Craig Johnson
Craig Johnson
Chief Market Technician · Coverage since 2020
AnaChart's record of Craig Johnson's S&P 500 year-end price targets at Piper Sandler covers 7 published targets and revisions across 5 closed forecast years. His final-year hit rate within ±3% of the actual close is 40% — 2 of 5 years. Closest call: 2023, target 4,825 vs. actual 4,770. Largest miss: 2021, target 4,225 vs. actual 4,766.
Johnson is a technician rather than a fundamental strategist, and his targets tend to be single calls held through the year rather than frequent revisions. His tightest stretch came in 2023, when he set 4,825 and the index closed at 4,770, inside 1.2%. The 2024 target of 5,800 also landed within 1.5% of the close. His widest miss was 2021, when a 4,225 call set in December 2020 trailed a 4,766 close by more than 11%. His 2026 target of 7,150 sits at the cautious end of the Street and reflects a "jump, slump, and pump" path he expects across the year. Every call is plotted on the chart below.
S&P 500 Year-End Targets — Full History
Gray line: S&P 500 end-of-day closing price. Blue line: Craig Johnson's published S&P 500 price targets, each plotted at issuance date.
Year-by-Year Forecast Performance
| Year | Final Target | Year-End Actual | % Off | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7,150 | Open | — | Open |
| 2025 | 6,600 | 6,846 | −3.6% | Miss |
| 2024 | 5,800 | 5,882 | −1.4% | Hit |
| 2023 | 4,825 | 4,770 | +1.2% | Hit |
| 2021 | 4,225 | 4,766 | −11.4% | Miss |
| 2020 | 3,600 | 3,756 | −4.2% | Miss |
Show 3 more years (2020–2023) Free account · no credit card
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Craig Johnson's S&P 500 target for 2026?
Johnson's year-end 2026 S&P 500 target is 7,150, set on December 12, 2025. It implies roughly 3.3% downside from the index level near 7,392 in May 2026 and sits at the cautious end of the Street.
How accurate are Craig Johnson's S&P 500 forecasts?
His final target has landed within ±3% of the actual close in 2 of 5 closed forecast years, a 40% hit rate. His best calls were 2023 and 2024; his widest miss was 2021. The year-by-year table above shows every call.
How often does Craig Johnson revise his S&P 500 target?
About once every 43 weeks on average. As a technician, Johnson tends to set a target and hold it through the year rather than revising frequently, which is why his revision cadence is slower than that of most bank strategists.
Who is Craig Johnson?
Craig Johnson is Chief Market Technician at Piper Sandler, where he leads the technical research group and publishes the firm's S&P 500 year-end target. AnaChart has tracked his forecasts since 2020.