Wall Street Strategist Jason Trennert
STRATEGAS
Jason Trennert
Chairman & Chief Investment Strategist · Coverage since 2008
AnaChart's record of Jason Trennert's S&P 500 year-end price targets at Strategas covers 8 published targets and revisions across 7 closed forecast years. His final-year hit rate within ±3% of the actual close is 14% — 1 of 7 years. Closest call: 2009, target 1,100 vs. actual 1,115. Largest miss: 2008, target 1,680 vs. actual 903.
Trennert co-founded Strategas in 2006 and sets the firm's S&P 500 view as its chief investment strategist. His tracked record is built almost entirely on single annual calls rather than mid-year revisions, which makes each year a clean read on the forecast. His one hit was 2009, a 1,100 target that finished just 1.3% below the 1,115 close. The widest gap was 2008, a 1,680 call set in January that the financial crisis left 86% above the 903 low. His 2026 target of 7,000, set on November 17, 2025, sits below the index level in May 2026, a more cautious stance than most of the field. Every call is plotted on the chart below.
S&P 500 Year-End Targets — Full History
Gray line: S&P 500 end-of-day closing price. Blue line: Jason Trennert's published S&P 500 price targets, each plotted at issuance date.
Year-by-Year Forecast Performance
| Year | Final Target | Year-End Actual | % Off | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7,000 | Open | — | Open |
| 2025 | 6,500 | 6,846 | −5.1% | Miss |
| 2024 | 5,100 | 5,882 | −13.3% | Miss |
| 2023 | 3,975 | 4,770 | −16.7% | Miss |
| 2022 | 5,100 | 3,840 | +32.8% | Miss |
| 2011 | 1,165 | 1,258 | −7.4% | Miss |
| 2009 | 1,100 | 1,115 | −1.3% | Hit |
| 2008 | 1,680 | 903 | +86.0% | Miss |
Show 4 more years (2008–2023) Free account · no credit card
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Jason Trennert's S&P 500 target for 2026?
Trennert's year-end 2026 S&P 500 target is 7,000, set on November 17, 2025. It sits about 5.3% below the index level near 7,392 in May 2026, a more cautious stance than most of the strategist field.
How accurate are Jason Trennert's S&P 500 forecasts?
His final target has landed within ±3% of the actual close in 1 of 7 closed forecast years, a 14% hit rate. The hit was 2009, within 1.3% of the close. The widest miss was 2008. The year-by-year table above shows every call.
How often does Jason Trennert revise his S&P 500 target?
Rarely. His tracked record is built on a single annual call in most years rather than mid-year revisions, so each year reflects one published forecast. Every dot on the chart marks one of those calls.
Who is Jason Trennert?
Jason Trennert co-founded Strategas Research Partners in 2006 and serves as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Strategas Securities and the firm's Chief Investment Strategist. AnaChart has tracked his S&P 500 calls since 2008.