Wall Street Strategist John Stoltzfus
John Stoltzfus
Chief Investment Strategist · Coverage since 2013
AnaChart's record of John Stoltzfus's S&P 500 year-end price targets at Oppenheimer covers 26 published targets and revisions across 13 closed forecast years. His final-year hit rate within ±3% of the actual close is 23% — 3 of 13 years. Closest call: 2017, target 2,650 vs. actual 2,674. Largest miss: 2018, target 3,000 vs. actual 2,507.
Stoltzfus is one of Wall Street's most consistent bulls, and his revision pattern reflects it. Through 2024 he raised his target four times, from 5,200 set in December 2023 up through 5,500 in March, 5,900 in July, and 6,200 in November, chasing an index that kept climbing. Two-way years are rarer: in 2022 he held 5,330 from late 2021 until mid-year, then cut to 4,800 in July and 4,000 in October as the Federal Reserve tightened. Late 2018 brought a quick wobble, a 3,100 call trimmed to 2,960 during the December selloff before settling near 3,000 for 2019. Every revision is plotted on the chart below.
S&P 500 Year-End Targets — Full History
Gray line: S&P 500 end-of-day closing price. Blue line: John Stoltzfus's published S&P 500 price targets, each plotted at issuance date.
Year-by-Year Forecast Performance
| Year | Final Target | Year-End Actual | % Off | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8,100 | Open | — | Open |
| 2025 | 7,100 | 6,846 | +3.7% | Miss |
| 2024 | 6,200 | 5,882 | +5.4% | Miss |
| 2023 | 4,400 | 4,770 | −7.8% | Miss |
| 2022 | 4,000 | 3,840 | +4.2% | Miss |
| 2021 | 4,300 | 4,766 | −9.8% | Miss |
| 2020 | 3,500 | 3,756 | −6.8% | Miss |
| 2019 | 3,000 | 3,231 | −7.1% | Miss |
| 2018 | 3,000 | 2,507 | +19.7% | Miss |
| 2017 | 2,650 | 2,674 | −0.9% | Hit |
| 2016 | 2,300 | 2,239 | +2.7% | Hit |
| 2015 | 2,311 | 2,044 | +13.1% | Miss |
| 2014 | 2,014 | 2,059 | −2.2% | Hit |
| 2013 | 1,585 | 1,848 | −14.2% | Miss |
Show 11 more years (2013–2023) Free account · no credit card
Frequently Asked Questions
What is John Stoltzfus's S&P 500 target for 2026?
Stoltzfus set a year-end 2026 S&P 500 target of 8,100 on December 8, 2025. It is one of the most bullish calls on Wall Street and implies roughly 9.6% upside from the index level near 7,392 in May 2026.
How accurate are John Stoltzfus's S&P 500 forecasts?
His final target for the year has landed within ±3% of the actual close in 3 of 13 closed forecast years, a 23% hit rate. As a structural bull he has more often undershot strong rallies than overshot them. The year-by-year table above shows every call.
How often does John Stoltzfus revise his S&P 500 target?
About once every 27 weeks on average. Calm years see a single call; turning-point years such as 2024 saw four separate revisions. Each point on the chart marks one revision.
Who is John Stoltzfus?
John Stoltzfus is Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer, where he leads market strategy and is a regular financial-media commentator. AnaChart has tracked his S&P 500 year-end targets since 2013.