Wall Street Strategist Mike Wilson
Mike Wilson
Chief Investment Officer & Chief US Equity Strategist · Coverage since 2017
AnaChart's record of Mike Wilson's S&P 500 year-end price targets at Morgan Stanley covers 20 published targets and revisions across 9 closed forecast years. His final-year hit rate within ±3% of the actual close is 22% — 2 of 9 years. Closest call: 2017, target 2,700 vs. actual 2,674. Largest miss: 2023, target 3,000 vs. actual 4,770.
Wilson built his public profile as Wall Street's most prominent bear, and that stance shaped his 2022 and 2023 calls before he turned constructive in 2024. His revision pattern is reactive. In early 2020 he cut a 3,250 target to 2,700 in March as the pandemic hit; in 2021 he moved from 3,900 up to 4,300 in March, then back to 4,000 by August. The 2024 turn was decisive, a cautious call lifted in stages to 5,700 as the rally held. His 2026 target of 7,800 marks a fully constructive view. Every move is plotted on the chart below.
S&P 500 Year-End Targets — Full History
Gray line: S&P 500 end-of-day closing price. Blue line: Mike Wilson's published S&P 500 price targets, each plotted at issuance date.
Year-by-Year Forecast Performance
| Year | Final Target | Year-End Actual | % Off | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7,800 | Open | — | Open |
| 2025 | 6,500 | 6,846 | −5.0% | Miss |
| 2024 | 5,700 | 5,882 | −3.1% | Miss |
| 2023 | 3,000 | 4,770 | −37.1% | Miss |
| 2022 | 3,900 | 3,840 | +1.6% | Hit |
| 2021 | 4,000 | 4,766 | −16.1% | Miss |
| 2020 | 2,700 | 3,756 | −28.1% | Miss |
| 2019 | 3,000 | 3,231 | −7.1% | Miss |
| 2018 | 2,750 | 2,507 | +9.7% | Miss |
| 2017 | 2,700 | 2,674 | +1.0% | Hit |
Show 7 more years (2017–2023) Free account · no credit card
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Wilson's S&P 500 target for 2026?
Wilson's year-end 2026 S&P 500 target is 7,800, set on November 19, 2025. It implies roughly 5.5% upside from the index level near 7,392 in May 2026 and marks a fully constructive stance.
How accurate are Mike Wilson's S&P 500 forecasts?
His final target has landed within ±3% of the actual close in 2 of 9 closed forecast years, a 22% hit rate. The widest miss came in 2023, when his well-known bearish stance left the target far below a strong year. The year-by-year table above shows every call.
How often does Mike Wilson revise his S&P 500 target?
About once every 25 weeks on average. His revisions tend to be reactive, clustering when the market moves sharply, as it did in 2019, 2020, and 2021.
Who is Mike Wilson?
Mike Wilson is Chief Investment Officer and Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, where he sets the firm's S&P 500 year-end target. AnaChart has tracked his forecasts since 2017.