Wall Street Strategist Phil Orlando
FEDERATED HERMES
Phil Orlando
Chief Equity Market Strategist · Coverage since 2012
AnaChart's record of Phil Orlando's S&P 500 year-end price targets at Federated Hermes covers 11 published targets and revisions across 7 closed forecast years. His final-year hit rate within ±3% of the actual close is 29% — 2 of 7 years. Closest call: 2012, target 1,450 vs. actual 1,426. Largest miss: 2022, target 5,300 vs. actual 3,840.
Orlando has set Federated Hermes' equity market view for years, and his tracked S&P 500 calls are spaced widely rather than clustered. His best results came at the bookends: 2012 finished 1.7% above the close and 2019 landed 2.1% high, both inside the 3% band. The 2026 target of 7,500, last revised on February 27, 2026, reflects a constructive read on the economy. The widest gap was 2022, when a 5,300 call set at the start of the year missed a 3,840 close by 38%, a reminder that a single early-year level can drift far when the market turns. Every revision is plotted on the chart below.
S&P 500 Year-End Targets — Full History
Gray line: S&P 500 end-of-day closing price. Blue line: Phil Orlando's published S&P 500 price targets, each plotted at issuance date.
Year-by-Year Forecast Performance
| Year | Final Target | Year-End Actual | % Off | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7,500 | Open | — | Open |
| 2025 | 6,200 | 6,846 | −9.4% | Miss |
| 2024 | 5,000 | 5,882 | −15.0% | Miss |
| 2023 | 4,200 | 4,770 | −11.9% | Miss |
| 2022 | 5,300 | 3,840 | +38.0% | Miss |
| 2021 | 4,200 | 4,766 | −11.9% | Miss |
| 2019 | 3,300 | 3,231 | +2.1% | Hit |
| 2012 | 1,450 | 1,426 | +1.7% | Hit |
Show 5 more years (2012–2023) Free account · no credit card
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Phil Orlando's S&P 500 target for 2026?
Orlando's year-end 2026 S&P 500 target is 7,500, most recently revised on February 27, 2026. It implies roughly 1.5% upside from the index level near 7,392 in May 2026.
How accurate are Phil Orlando's S&P 500 forecasts?
His final target has landed within ±3% of the actual close in 2 of 7 closed forecast years, a 29% hit rate. The hits came in 2012 and 2019; the widest miss was 2022. The year-by-year table above shows every call.
How often does Phil Orlando revise his S&P 500 target?
Roughly once every 46 weeks on average, a slower cadence than most large-bank strategists. He tends to set a level and hold it, with extra moves when the outlook shifts. Every dot on the chart marks one of those calls.
Who is Phil Orlando?
Phil Orlando is Chief Equity Market Strategist at Federated Hermes, where he sets the firm's S&P 500 year-end view. AnaChart has tracked his forecasts since 2012.