Wall Street Strategist Tom Lee
FUNDSTRAT GLOBAL ADVISORS
Tom Lee
Head of Research · Coverage since 2015
AnaChart's record of Tom Lee's S&P 500 year-end price targets at Fundstrat Global Advisors covers 23 published targets and revisions across 11 closed forecast years. His final-year hit rate within ±3% of the actual close is 27% — 3 of 11 years. Closest call: 2023, target 4,825 vs. actual 4,770. Largest miss: 2022, target 4,800 vs. actual 3,840.
Lee co-founded Fundstrat Global Advisors in 2014 after running US equity strategy at JPMorgan, and he is one of the market's best-known bulls. His revisions tend to chase strength rather than cut into it. Through 2024 he moved from 5,200 set in December 2023 up to 5,800 in June and 6,000 in October as the rally extended. The 2020 recovery looked similar, a 3,185 call lifted to 3,525 in August and 3,800 in November once the post-pandemic rebound took hold. He revises roughly twice a year. Every target is plotted on the chart below.
S&P 500 Year-End Targets — Full History
Gray line: S&P 500 end-of-day closing price. Blue line: Tom Lee's published S&P 500 price targets, each plotted at issuance date.
Year-by-Year Forecast Performance
| Year | Final Target | Year-End Actual | % Off | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7,700 | Open | — | Open |
| 2025 | 7,300 | 6,846 | +6.6% | Miss |
| 2024 | 6,000 | 5,882 | +2.0% | Hit |
| 2023 | 4,825 | 4,770 | +1.2% | Hit |
| 2022 | 4,800 | 3,840 | +25.0% | Miss |
| 2021 | 4,600 | 4,766 | −3.5% | Miss |
| 2020 | 3,800 | 3,756 | +1.2% | Hit |
| 2019 | 3,125 | 3,231 | −3.3% | Miss |
| 2018 | 3,025 | 2,507 | +20.7% | Miss |
| 2017 | 2,475 | 2,674 | −7.4% | Miss |
| 2016 | 2,325 | 2,239 | +3.8% | Miss |
| 2015 | 2,325 | 2,044 | +13.8% | Miss |
Show 9 more years (2015–2023) Free account · no credit card
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Tom Lee's S&P 500 target for 2026?
Lee's year-end 2026 S&P 500 target is 7,700, set on December 11, 2025. It implies roughly 4.2% upside from the index level near 7,392 in May 2026.
How accurate are Tom Lee's S&P 500 forecasts?
His final target has landed within ±3% of the actual close in 3 of 11 closed forecast years, a 27% hit rate. As a persistent bull his misses skew high; his widest came in 2022, when a target held into a bear market. The year-by-year table above shows every call.
How often does Tom Lee revise his S&P 500 target?
About once every 26 weeks on average, or roughly twice a year. His revisions usually follow the market higher rather than trimming into weakness.
Who is Tom Lee?
Tom Lee is co-founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, an independent research firm he started in 2014. He was previously Chief Equity Strategist at JPMorgan and is one of the most widely followed bulls in financial media. AnaChart has tracked his S&P 500 year-end targets since 2015.