Wall Street Strategist Richard Bernstein
Richard Bernstein
Chief Investment Strategist · Coverage 2002–2009 · Left to found Richard Bernstein Advisors April 2009
AnaChart's record of Richard Bernstein's S&P 500 year-end price targets at Merrill Lynch covers 5 published targets and revisions across 4 closed forecast years. His final-year hit rate within ±3% of the actual close is 25% — 1 of 4 years. Closest call: 2007, target 1,450 vs. actual 1,468. Largest miss: 2008, target 1,525 vs. actual 903.
Bernstein was Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch and left the firm in 2009 to found Richard Bernstein Advisors, where he remains active today. The forecasts on this page are his Merrill Lynch era, 2002 through 2009. His record was uneven through a turbulent stretch of markets. The 2007 call was a near-perfect hit, a 1,450 target finishing about 1.3% below the actual. The 2008 call was the largest miss, a 1,525 target left far above a 903 close as the financial crisis hit. His final target of 1,000 for 2009, set in November 2008, ended about 10% below a 1,115 close. Every revision is plotted on the chart below.
S&P 500 Year-End Targets — Full History
Gray line: S&P 500 end-of-day closing price. Blue line: Richard Bernstein's published S&P 500 price targets, each plotted at issuance date. Both lines end at retirement.
Year-by-Year Forecast Performance
| Year | Final Target | Year-End Actual | % Off | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 1,000 | 1,115 | −10.3% | Miss |
| 2008 | 1,525 | 903 | +68.8% | Miss |
| 2007 | 1,450 | 1,468 | −1.3% | Hit |
| 2002 | 1,200 | 880 | +36.4% | Miss |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Richard Bernstein still at Merrill Lynch?
No. Bernstein was Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch and left the firm in 2009 to found Richard Bernstein Advisors, where he serves as Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer. The forecasts tracked here are from his Merrill Lynch era, 2002 through 2009.
What was Richard Bernstein's final S&P 500 target at Merrill Lynch?
Bernstein's last AnaChart-tracked target as Merrill Lynch strategist was 1,000 for year-end 2009, set in November 2008 during the depths of the financial crisis. It finished about 10% below the actual close of 1,115.
How accurate were Richard Bernstein's S&P 500 forecasts?
His final target for the year landed within ±3% of the actual close in 1 of his 4 closed forecast years, a 25% hit rate. His 2007 call was a near-perfect hit; his 2002 and 2008 targets were left far above the actual as markets fell. The year-by-year table above shows every call.
How often did Richard Bernstein revise his S&P 500 target?
The Merrill Lynch record is sparse, with revisions averaging well over a year apart. He tended to set one year-end call and hold it. Each point on the chart marks one published target.
What did Richard Bernstein do after Merrill Lynch?
Bernstein founded Richard Bernstein Advisors in 2009, an asset management firm that runs multi-asset and global equity strategies. He remains its CEO and Chief Investment Officer, so he is still an active strategist, just no longer at Merrill Lynch.