Price target raised or cut? We analyzed 267,985 of them. Here's what followed

By Mathew Auto, AnaChart research desk. Updated 23 October 2026. Data through 5 October 2026.

A price target raise means an analyst now thinks the stock is worth more in twelve months than they did before. A cut means less. That’s the whole definition, and it’s simpler than the headlines that follow it.

What people usually want to know is the next part: does the stock do better after a raise than after a cut? We looked at 267,985 target revisions on the most covered stocks in AnaChart’s records, from 2015 to September 2025.

The gap was smaller than most people expect.

What a raise or a cut means

A price target is the share price an analyst expects in about a year. When they change it, the new number replaces the old one in their model, and the change is reported as a raise or a cut. The rating can stay the same.

An analyst can cut a target and keep a Buy, or raise one and keep a Hold. We explain the ratings themselves in what an analyst buy rating means.

In our records the median raise was 9.4% and the median cut 9.1%. About 1.5% of revisions kept the target where it was.

What the stock did next

We took the share price on the day of each revision and checked it 30, 90 and 180 days later.

After a raise, the median stock was up 1.7% at 30 days, 2.7% at 90 and 5.0% at 180. After a cut: 1.1%, 2.4% and 3.0%.

For all revisions together the figures were 1.5%, 2.6% and 4.2%, so at 90 days a raise sat just above the average and a cut just below it. By 180 days the gap had grown to 5.0% against 3.0%.

The share of stocks that were higher told the same story. Ninety days on, 56.6% were up after a raise and 55.0% after a cut.

Big moves opened the gap a little. After raises of 25% or more, the median stock was up 4.8% at 90 days (14,100 cases). After cuts of 25% or more, up 3.1% (7,095 cases).

These are plain share price changes, without dividends and not measured against the market. So read them as a comparison between raises and cuts, not as returns you’d have earned.

Earlier research found a similar picture. Asquith, Mikhail and Au (Journal of Financial Economics, 2005) found that analysts’ targets were reached slightly over half the time. Brav and Lehavy (2003) found that the market reacts to target revisions when they’re published.

Key takeaway: a raise was followed by slightly better share price moves than a cut, but at 30 and 90 days the gap was small.

A cut target is usually still above the price

A cut sounds bearish. Most of the time the new target is still higher than the share price.

On the day of the revision, the median raised target sat 12.8% above the price. The median cut target sat 18.2% above it. 88.7% of cuts left the target above the price.

Key takeaway: a cut is usually still a call that the stock will rise. Read the new target against the price, not against the old target.

What the same analyst does next

We matched each revision to the same analyst’s next move on the same stock. The median wait was 92 days.

After a raise, the next move was another raise 67.3% of the time and a cut 31.5%. After a cut, it was a coin flip: 49.4% raises and 49.4% cuts. Raises tend to come in runs. A cut doesn’t say much about the next revision.

Key takeaway: raises tend to come in runs. A cut says little about the analyst’s next move.

Raises and cuts by year

The mix swings a lot from year to year. In 2021, 77.1% of revisions were raises. In 2022 it was 36.9%.

Around earnings, targets lean the same way as the share price. We found that in what happens to price targets after earnings, where 91.0% of revisions were raises when the stock jumped on the report.

Eight raises and cuts, and what came next

The medians above are calm. The individual cases aren’t. Here are eight from AnaChart’s records where a big raise or a big cut was followed by something nobody priced in. Prices and targets are adjusted for splits, so older Tesla and Nvidia numbers look small.

Roku, 19 February 2021: seven raises at the top

Roku was at $467.31 and seven analysts raised their targets on the same day. Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer went from $260 to $500.

Tom Forte of D.A. Davidson went from $300 to $560, and Daniel Kurnos of StoneX from $410 to $600. Ninety days later the stock was down 32%. A year later it was down 76%.

Tesla, January 2020: raise the target, downgrade the stock

On 9 January 2020 Ben Kallo of Baird raised his Tesla target by 48%, to $35, and downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral on the same day.

A week later Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley raised his target from $16.67 to $24 and moved to Underweight. The price was around $32 to $34. A year later Tesla was worth eight to nine times as much.

Tesla, 19 March 2020: the cut at the bottom

Two months later the market was falling fast. Dan Ives of Wedbush cut his Tesla target 40%, from $47.33 to $28.33, with the stock at $28.51.

Ninety days later it was up 132%. A year later it was worth 7.7 times the price on the day of the cut. Today he holds the highest Tesla target on AnaChart, $600.

Coinbase, January 2023: cuts of up to 52%

In the first two weeks of 2023, analysts cut Coinbase hard. Stephen Glagola of TD Cowen cut from $75 to $36 and downgraded to Market Perform, with the stock at $33.53.

Jeff Cantwell of Wells Fargo went from $55 to $33 with an Underweight rating. Devin Ryan of Citizens cut from $155 to $80. A year after Glagola’s cut, Coinbase had gained 354%.

Meta, November 2022: a cut that kept the Strong Buy

Ivan Feinseth of Tigress Partners cut his Meta target from $466 to $260 on 2 November 2022, with the stock at $90.54, and kept his Strong Buy. A year later Meta was up 233%, well past his new $260 target.

Nvidia, September 2022: downgraded before the run

Louis Miscioscia of Daiwa cut his Nvidia target by 38% on 2 September 2022 and downgraded from Buy to Neutral, with the stock at $13.65 in today’s split-adjusted terms. A year later Nvidia was up 245%.

Peloton, 2021: cutting wasn’t enough

On 7 May 2021 three analysts cut Peloton by 30% to 40% at $83.81. Eric Sheridan, then at UBS, went to $74 with a Sell. Doug Anmuth of JPMorgan cut from $200 to $140 and kept Overweight.

Over the next 90 days the stock rose 39%. A year later it was down 85%.

In November 2021 Anmuth cut again, to $90, and Dana Telsey went from $135 to $70 and downgraded, with the stock at $55.64. A year after that it was down another 83%.

Meta, 2026: $835 to $640 to $1,000

Ken Gawrelski of Wells Fargo cut his Meta target from $835 to $640 on 30 July 2026, with the stock at $539. By late September Meta was at $777.

On 5 October he raised his target to $1,000. Two moves, ten weeks apart, by the same analyst on the same stock.

The eight cases side by side

On a phone, swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Split-adjusted. Price changes without dividends, from the closest close in our records within seven days of each date.

Five of the eight were followed by a move the other way: four cuts before big gains and one wave of raises before a crash. Picking the right analyst is a separate question.

In our consensus test, the average target beat the best-record analyst 53.9% of the time. That fits the totals: on its own, the direction of a revision told you little about the next year.

Key takeaway: in these cases the biggest gains came after cuts, and the worst fall came after a wave of raises.

How to read the next one you see

A single raise or cut tells you more about where the stock has been than where it’s going. Three things are worth more than the headline:

• Where the new target sits against today’s price. A cut to a level 30% above the price is still a bullish call.
• Whether the rating changed too. A downgrade with the cut says more than the cut alone.
• The analyst’s record on that stock. If you read the news on Seeking Alpha, we show how to look up the analyst behind it. On AnaChart, every analyst’s targets on a stock show how many were reached, how long they took and a performance score. Our page on how accurate analyst price targets are covers what those numbers look like across the market.

How we measured this

Data. AnaChart’s record of analyst price targets, newest record 5 October 2026. Targets and prices are adjusted for splits.

Revisions. A target from an analyst who already had a target on the same stock, on the 1,500 stocks with the most targets (1,491 had revisions in the window), from 1 January 2015 to 30 September 2025.

Raise, cut or keep compares the new target with that analyst’s previous one. 267,985 revisions.

Price change. The share price 30, 90 and 180 days after the revision date against the closing price on that date, adjusted for splits.

Dividends are not included and the market is not netted out. Revisions without a price on the later date are left out, so the 90-day figures cover 121,636 raises and 76,490 cuts.

Next move. The same analyst’s next target on the same stock, where there was one.

Data through 5 October 2026. Published 23 October 2026.

Frequently asked questions

What does it mean when a price target is raised?

The analyst now expects a higher share price in about twelve months than they did before. In our records the median raise was 9.4%. It doesn’t have to come with a rating change.

Is a price target cut a sell signal?

Not by itself. 88.7% of cuts in our records left the target above the share price, and the median stock was up 2.4% ninety days after a cut, close to the 2.7% after a raise.

Do stocks go up after a price target is raised?

A little more often than after a cut. Ninety days after a raise, 56.6% of stocks were higher and the median change was 2.7%. After a cut, 55.0% were higher and the median was 2.4%.

How often do analysts raise price targets?

60.4% of the 267,985 revisions we counted from 2015 to 2025 were raises. The share swings with the market: 77.1% in 2021 and 36.9% in 2022.